2018 China America trade war started [进程+结局] 预计

  • It can take 6 years until Trump leaves office
  • It is Trump who desperately wants a deal, then a good deal, so to win the re-election. Without a deal, and with bad economy, Trump might lose the re-election.
  • There will be no real trade deal
  • In case 25% tariff on all $500 Billion Chinese goods, China will lose some (100 billion/year) * 5 years /2 = $250 billion, because Chinese companies will pay only a small part of the lose, it is mainly the American importers and consumers paying the Trump Tariff.
  • $250 billion lose for China in 6 years is serious nothing, see China has so much forex, and still making big profit from CN-US trade.
  • Even if each year China loses some 30 billion USD to Trump’s tariff, China still makes like 300 billion surplus from US, so still the big winner of the trade.
  • China will then stimulate the domestic market, which is the KEY for long term eco development of China. China will also keep its state-owned companies system, and put huge funds into Made in China 2025 strategy, and maintain complete control of Chinese internal political and economic systems. China will also put huge money into R&D in high tech like chip industry, see what happens with Huawei.
  • USA will lose trust from Chinese people, this is too bad for USA in long term, because anyway China will be #1 in the world, and this will is be reality very soon, even Trump can delay this process like 5 years.
  • All in all, in the end, China will come out as big winner, Trump will be out of office after no more than 5 years, Xi wins.

https://money.cnn.com/data/dow30/

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chefu
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chefu

Sorry to see “World Automobile China Auto Blog” disparaging the American president like this. I thought it would discreetly remain non-partisan.
We are all hoping for the best outcome, and above all a relationship that will remain one of friendship, and cooperation in the pursuit of global harmony.

HavaR
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特朗普试图对华极限施压 华春莹:我只想呵呵两声

说到中国经济情 况,一个显而易见的事实就是,中国今年二季度的GDP增长率是6.2%,美国是2.1%,6.2%和2.1%到底哪个更好、哪个更糟,大家都有清晰的判 断。

  “在中美要落实两国元首大阪会晤共识的时候,无论是放烟幕弹也好,或者是要进行一些极限施压也好,都不具有建设性。”华春莹说。

comment image?20170916054323

https://news.sina.com.cn/c/2019-07-31/doc-ihytcitm5965447.shtml

西海情歌
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HavaR
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要和美国“扳一扳手腕“,中国最高层首谈中美贸易战

中共政治局常委、全国政协主席汪洋首谈中美贸易战的影响。他表示,中美两国可能要“扳一扳手腕”,最坏的情况,今年的GDP损失会1个百分点。汪洋强调,中国经济稳健发展的基本面不会被掀翻。汪洋是第一位中国决策层官员坦率谈到中美贸易战对中国经济的可能影响。

新加坡联合早报报道称,中共政治局常委汪洋周四在北京对台商组织代表说,中美贸易战对中国经济肯定有影响,但中国最多是今年的GDP损失会1个百分点。他劝台商不要从中国大陆撤出,留在大陆还有巨大发展机会。

报道称,中国曾作最悲观预估,最多今年的GDP将损失1个百分点;中国也认为,美国也将会杀敌一千、自损八百。此前有分析指中美贸易战中国或损两个百分点,如果中国反击,或再增加损失一个百分点。

香港英文版的南华早报周五也援引中共高级官员称,中国政府在评估贸易战的影响,最坏的情况是,中美贸易战可能将中国今年经济增长率拉低1个百分点。该报道并称,尽管这位高官做出了坦率的评估,但他似乎并不太担心中美争端的长期影响,他表示不会导致任何结构性变化。

路透社报道说,今年两会的政府工作报告设定中国2019年经济增长预期目标为6.0-6.5%。但中国最新发布的4月宏观经济数据全面低于预期。

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http://video.creaders.net/2019/05/18/2092070.html